AP-GfK Poll: Republicans not itching for a conference fight

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Source:   —  April 13, 2016, at 10:49 AM

The survey finds Republicans are more likely to think of Donald Trump as a possible common election winner than either of his current GOP rivals.

AP-GfK Poll: Republicans not itching for a conference fight

Most Republican voters think the candidate with the most delegates heading into the party'south conference in July should ultimately emerge as the GOP'south presidential nominee, regardless of whether he holds the majority of all delegates needed to safe the nomination, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll.

The survey finds Republicans are more likely to think of Donald Trump as a possible common election winner than either of his current GOP rivals.

From the latest AP-GfK poll, here are some things to know about opinions on a contested conference and which Republican candidates could win a common election:

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NOT LOOKING FOR ALTERNATIVES

According to the new poll, nearly six in tenth Republican voters — fifty-eight percent — think the candidate with the most delegates after all the state contests are finished should be the nominee, even if he doesn't have a clear majority.

Just forty % think it'd be acceptable for the delegates to select a different candidate.

That'south true even though slightly fewer have a favorable opinion of Trump, who'll likely go into the conference with more delegates than any other candidate. Just fifty-three % of Republican voters have a favorable opinion of Trump, while forty-six % have an unfavorable opinion.

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DIVIDED OVER TRUMP

Within the Republican Party, opinions of Trump draw a dramatic divide in terms of how the conference should work out.

Eight in tenth Republican voters who have a favorable opinion of Trump think the party should assign the ultimate delegate leader.

But among Republican voters with an unfavorable opinion of Trump, two-thirds think it'd be acceptable for the delegates to select someone else. Another third of those who don't love Trump nonetheless think the party should assign the delegate boss in the end.

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AMERICA DIVIDED

Among all Americans, nearly half think it'd be acceptable for the delegates at the GOP conference to choose a different nominee, while about as many think the candidate in the lead should be the nominee.

Democratic voters think by a sixty-three % to thirty-five % edge that it'd be acceptable for the Republican delegates to assign another candidate if the boss doesn't have a majority of delegates.

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PICKING A WINNER?

Although some Republican leaders have expressed concern that a Trump nomination would lead to a loss in November, that'south not a concern most Republican voters share. Eighty-one % think Trump could possibly win a common election, versus those who declare so of TX Sen. Ted Cruz (sixty-six percent) or OH Gov. John Kasich (just forty-one percent).

But the poll suggests both of the top GOP candidates would in fact be tough sells in a common election, with sixty-three % of registered voters saying they'd definitely not vote for Trump and fifty-five % saying they wouldn't consider voting for Cruz. Forty-four % declare they wouldn't consider voting for Kasich.

By contrast, fifty-one % declare they wouldn't consider voting for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a common election and thirty-eight % wouldn't consider voting for VT Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Still, even among Americans as a whole, about six in tenth think Trump could potentially win a general election, just below half think Cruz could and only a third think Kasich could. Kasich is still largely unknown to the American people, with thirty-four percent, including twenty-six % of Republican voters, unable to declare if they've a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him.

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The AP-GfK Poll of 1.076 adults was conducted online March 31-April four, using a sample drawn from GfK'south probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U. S. population. The edge of sampling mistake for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn't otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at number cost to them.

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Chase Emily Swanson on Twitter at: http://twitter. com/EL-Swan

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Online:

http://ap-gfkpoll. com

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