First Read: Frontrunners Poised for Huge Wins in the Huge Apple

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Source:   —  April 19, 2016, at 5:29 PM

The latest couple of weeks haven't been kind to presidential frontrunners Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

First Read: Frontrunners Poised for Huge Wins in the Huge Apple

First Read is a morning briefing from Meet the Press and the NBC Political Unit on the day'south most necessary political stories and why they matter.

The latest couple of weeks haven't been kind to presidential frontrunners Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. But if the polling is correct, both are poised for large wins in their residence state of NY tonight, which would set them up to possibly running the table in the April twenty-six states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.

A Trump win -- if his percentage is well above fifty% -- would give him a chance to win all of New York's ninety-five delegates. (A candidate can win all of the state'south delegates by being above fifty percent both statewide and in each congressional district.) If Trump takes all of the ninety-five delegates (or near to it), and if he sweeps the April twenty-six primaries, he'd necessity to win about just fifty percent of the remaining delegates to hit the magic 1.237 number. So for the "Stop Trump" movement, the title of the game is to hold Trump below fifty percent in several of the state'south congressional districts. But ask yourself: Has the movement done everything it can to stop Trump in New York? Here'south where the GOP delegate race currently stands:

Trump holds a 197-delegate lead over Cruz

Trump needs to win sixty-one percent of remaining delegates to reach one thousand two hundred thirty-seven magic number

Cruz needs to win eighty-six percent of remaining delegates to reach one thousand two hundred thirty-seven magic number

Kasich needs to win one hundred forty percent of remaining delegates to reach one thousand two hundred thirty-seven magic number

As for the Democratic race between the Brooklyn-born Bernie Sanders and NY transplant Hillary Clinton, a Clinton win in New York -- by nearly any margin -- would create the delegate math all but impossible for Sanders. Currently, Clinton needs to win only thirty-three percent of all remaining delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination, while Sanders needs to sixty-seven%, which is a tough climb given the proportional nature of all Democratic contests. If Clinton gets a 10-point win in NY as the polling suggests, her thirty-three percent would go down to thirty%. And if she sweeps the April twenty-six contests, it'd go down to twenty-two%. Here'south the Democratic delegate math:

In pledged delegates, Clinton currently holds a lead of two hundred forty delegates (with WA delegates to still be allocated)

Clinton should win forty-three percent of remaining pledged delegates to obtain a majority in pledged delegates

Sanders should win fifty-seven percent of remaining pledged delegates to obtain a majority in pledged delegates

In overall delegates (pledged + super), Clinton holds an overall lead of six hundred sixty-five delegates

Clinton should win thirty-three percent of remaining delegates to reach two thousand three hundred eighty-three magic number

Sanders should win sixty-seven percent of remaining delegates to reach two thousand three hundred eighty-three magic number

While the Democratic race in NY is closer than the GOP contest, Sanders is facing three disadvantages that create him the underdog tonight:

By now, you've probably seen the bad favorable/unfavorable numbers for the presidential frontrunners in our new NBC/WSJ poll. Trump is at twenty-fourth%-65% (-41) -- the worst rating for a major presidential candidate in the history of our poll. Hillary Clinton is at thirty-second%-56% (-24), down eleven total points from a mo ago. And Ted Cruz at twenty-sixth%-49% (-23). These terrible numbers will create it VERY tough for the following president to govern. But one of the explanations for these destitute numbers -- though certainly not the only reason -- is the friendly fire they've taken from within the party as the primary season has gone on. Just see at these numbers interior the poll'south crosstabs, from best to worse:

Folks, this also partly explains why Kasich (at thirty-first%-19 percent overall) and Sanders (forty-five%-36%) are the two most favorite presidential candidates in our poll: They're not getting hit as much from within the party. By comparison, here are the intraparty fav/unfav scores for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in the April two thousand eight NBC/WSJ poll, after that primary battle had taken a nasty turn:

Given the numbers above, it'll be fascinating to look the rhetoric coming from Sanders and his campaign if they finish up losing NY by double digits. Sanders has EARNED the right to have a voice within the Democratic Party going forward. But what does he want? And will he do it in a way that can maximize influencing the party? Because things love this doesn't assistance win friends and influence people interior your own party. The WA Post : "Bernie Sanders accused rival Hillary Clinton on Monday of appearing to breach campaign finance laws with her expansive utilize of a joint fundraising committee set up latest year with the national party. The controversy seemed to further sour relations between the two Democratic hopefuls at a point in the campaign where their patience with one another had already worn extremely thin, as evidenced by their testy debate in Brooklyn this week." In a conference call with reporters, per NBC'south Kristen Welker and Andrea Mitchell, Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook categorically denied the Sanders camp'south allegations. Mook added, "We expect that Secretary Clinton will be the nominee, particularly after tomorrow. Sen. Sanders and his campaign necessity to determine if they're going to continue on this line of attack. He needs to determine if he wants to continue making attacks on the Democratic Party itself and on allied groups love Planned Parenthood."

Finally, a majority of voters presently declare that they believe the United States Senate should vote on President Barack Obama'south nominee to fill the vacancy on the Supreme Court, according to a new NBC News/ Wall Str Journal poll. In the poll, fifty-two percent of registered voters said that the Senate should vote on the nomination of Merrick Garland, whom Obama tapped for the work latest month. Three in ten declare that lawmakers should leave the Ct seat unoccupied until the following president takes office, and eighteen percent have number opinion.

Hillary Clinton gives a speech at the Building Trades Union Conference in DC before holding her Election Look party in New York… Bernie Sanders campaigns in Pennsylvania, including holding a 7:00 pm ET rally at Penn State… Donald Trump will be in New York tonight… Ted Cruz stumps in Philly… And John Kasich hits both PA and Maryland.

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