NY Primary: Donald Trump Anxious to Finish Ted Cruz's Winning Streak

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Source:   —  April 19, 2016, at 5:28 PM

Ted Cruz and OH Gov. John Kasich. The burning question isn't whether Trump wins New York — if he doesn't, it'll be among the biggest polling surprises ever — but whether Cruz and Kasich can choose up sufficient delegates to derail his nomination before July'south conference in Cleveland.

NY Primary: Donald Trump Anxious to Finish Ted Cruz's Winning Streak

Donald Trump'south final thrust for the GOP nomination starts Tuesday in New York, where the front-runner is heavily favored over rivals Sen. Ted Cruz and OH Gov. John Kasich.

The burning question isn't whether Trump wins New York — if he doesn't, it'll be among the biggest polling surprises ever — but whether Cruz and Kasich can choose up sufficient delegates to derail his nomination before July'south conference in Cleveland.

Since Trump'south latest triumph in Arizona'south March twenty-two primary, Cruz has won a competitive race in Wisconsin, as well as a series of sweeping victories in N Dakota, CO and Wyoming, which awarded their delegates through state conventions rather than primaries or caucuses.

The TX senator has argued that his recent wins tag a "turning point" that'll carry him to a triumph in a contested convention. That remains to be seen: Trump'south position still looks powerful in national polls, where a new NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll keep him at forty-sixth % support among Republicans versus twenty-eight % for Cruz and nineteen % for Kasich, suggesting Cruz'south victories reflected a favorable stretch of states rather than GOP voters abandoning Trump.

If nothing else, however, Cruz'south success in the latest month'south delegate fights exposed a feeble Trump organization, prompted a major staff shakeup, and provoked a furious response from the candidate himself, who complained of a "rigged election" in Staten Island this week.

The delegate losses illustrated Trump'south precarious position in the race, despite his large lead. If he falls brief of the 1.237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination, Cruz'south superior organization presently looks likely to outmaneuver him at a contested convention."I don't wish to play that game," Trump said of a contested conference on Sunday. "I'm winning with the voters and we're winning huge and I think we'll obtain to the 1.237."

Which brings us back to New York. In order to stay on pace for that goal, Trump needs to win his residence state by a large margin, as well as win a series of friendly northern states love New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, and RI that vote the following week. Overall, Trump needs to win sixty-one % of all remaining delegates to hit 1.237 — a challenging but achievable task.

More than a dozen polls this mo indicate Trump leading in NY with over fifty % support, an necessary threshold that'd authorize him to choose up all fourteen of the state'south at-large delegates. Another eighty-one are chosen by Congressional district, with the winner getting all three in each district if they break fifty % and the second-place finisher getting one if they fall short.

Whether Cruz and Kasich can peel off a significant no of delegates could depend on their skill to turn out supporters in heavily Democratic districts where even a handful of Republican votes could create a difference. This would clarify why Cruz and Kasich have both visited the Bronx'south fifteenth District, where only two hundred eighty-five Republicans voted in two thousand-twelfth'south primary. Cruz and Kasich have also courted ultra-Orthodox Jewish voters in Brooklyn, who could prove an necessary constituency in several city races.

NY has a closed primary and its deadlines to register to vote are unusually early, which could also hold some independent Trump supporters from the polls. Two victims of this policy are Trump'south own children, Ivanka and Eric Trump, who missed the Oct deadline to switch to the Republican Party.

Cruz has his own problems, however. The TX senator has been haunted by his decision to assail Trump'south "NY values" months ago while campaigning for IA votes. Cruz has tried to make clear that he was referring only to New York's "left-wing Democratic policies," but Trump has slammed Cruz over the line, which he says is disrespectful of the city'south perseverance after the nine/eleven terror attacks. Cruz received a frosty welcome when he spoke at a NY GOP gala on Thursday, and a Republican police officer in attendance told NBC News' Vaughn Hillyard that the senator "blew it" by using the phrase.

"You heard his statement on values, New York values, and I can't imagine any New Yorker voting for Cruz," Trump said on Sunday.

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