Trump Leads, but Kasich Support Reaches New High Ahead of N. Y. Primary: Poll

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Source:   —  April 19, 2016, at 2:42 PM

John Kasich has gained the most ground, according to the latest NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking poll. Trump remains at forty-sixth % support this week, unchanged from latest week.

Trump Leads, but Kasich Support Reaches New High Ahead of N. Y. Primary: Poll

Donald Trump remains the top choose of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters nationally, but OH Gov. John Kasich has gained the most ground, according to the latest NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking poll.

Trump remains at forty-sixth % support this week, unchanged from latest week. TX Sen. Ted Cruz dropped two points from latest week and presently has twenty-eight % support. Kasich has nineteen % support, up three points from latest week. Kasich'south rise, while modest, still gives him the highest support he's had since the start of the tracking poll.

The poll was conducted online from April eleven to April seventeen among 13.020 adults aged eighteen and over.

For the most part, the demographics of the electorate haven't played a critical role in the Republican primaries this season. However, some groups have been necessary to specific candidates. Trump, for example, has done very well among those without college degrees. This has necessary implications in the NY primary.

In the previous Republican primaries, sixteen % of voters have an education level of high school or less, according to the NBC News Exit poll. According to results from the NBC News Exit Poll in the two thousand eight NY Republican primary, twenty-five % of the electorate had an education level of high school or less.

Nationally, fifty-six % of Republicans and Republican-leaners with an education level of high school or less support Trump this week, down three points from latest week, according to the tracking poll. Cruz gets twenty-seven support among that group, and Kasich gets eleven % support.

White evangelicals have also been an necessary grouping throughout the primary season, making up fifty % of Republican primary voters so far. In New York, however, there are fewer white evangelicals than the previous contests this year.

In two thousand-eighth, white evangelicals made up fifteen % of the NY Republican primary electorate, according to NBC News Exit Poll results. Overall, Trump and Cruz have done well among white evangelicals in the two thousand sixteen primary contests so far.

Trump has forty-four % support among white evangelicals in our tracking poll this week. That no held steady from latest week. Cruz has thirty-eight % support among that group, down two points from latest week. Kasich got a boost among white evangelicals this week and presently has sixteen % support, up from ten percent. The significant disagreement in the no of white evangelicals in NY compared to prior states could damage Cruz, who's consistently done well among white evangelicals.

While there wasn't a lot of modify in the national numbers this week, the changing composition of the electorate in every state makes it necessary to examine key subgroups. The subgroups necessary in Tuesday's NY Republican primary propose that Trump is poised to do well. Kasich'south rise is also born out in our national poll, and it'll be fascinating to look how this translates into votes in the contest.

The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking poll was conducted online April eleven through April seventeen, two thousand sixteen among a national sample of 13.020 adults aged eighteen and over, including 11.498 who declare they're registered to vote. Respondents for this non-probability survey were selected from the nearly three million people who get surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Results have an mistake estimate of plus or minus 1.3 percentage points. A full description of our methodology and the poll can be found here.

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