Analysis: Kasich would modify election map, win White House

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Source:   —  April 13, 2016, at 6:11 PM

But John Kasich would rewrite the map, taking several states far from the Democratic column and winning the White House – if he could win the Republican nomination, which right presently seems well out of his grasp.

Analysis: Kasich would modify election map, win White House

Either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz would lose the fall presidential election to Hillary Clinton in a state-by-state electoral trounce identical or nearly identical to the one that crushed Mitt Romney four years ago, according to a new analysis being released Wednesday.

But John Kasich would rewrite the map, taking several states far from the Democratic column and winning the White House – if he could win the Republican nomination, which right presently seems well out of his grasp.

Kasich, the Gov of Ohio, would win the common election by beating Clinton in several areas where Obama triumphed over Romney, notably Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, PA and Wisconsin, according to the study by Morning Consult, a nonpartisan media and polling company. It provided an early duplicate to McClatchy.

The key disagreement is likability. Kasich scores well. Trump and Cruz do not.

Kasich’s campaign said Wednesday the analysis echoed his argument to GOP primary voters that he’s their best bet to win a general election.

“It’s clear that John Kasich isn't only the GOP candidate best prepared to be President, he's the only one who can actually win,” said campaign spokesman Mike Schrimpf. “Ted Cruz and Donald Trump would lose in an electoral landslide and cost us critical seats in the U. S. Senate and House.”

To win the White House, a candidate needs two hundred seventy of the five hundred thirty-eight electoral votes. Four years ago, .

with Clinton as the Democratic nominee, Morning Advise surveyed 44.000 registered voters from Jan until the first week of this month, then used a statistical technique to crack down opinions into state-level results.

The firm didn't test Bernie Sanders, whose campaign took keep after the polling started.

The electoral college forecast:

– Clinton three hundred thirty-two, Cruz 206.

– Clinton three hundred twenty-eight, Trump 210.

– Kasich three hundred four, Clinton 234.

Clinton would keep nearly all the Obama states in the Northeast, Upper Midwest and Pacific Coast against Cruz or Trump. She’d also get the swing states of Colorado, Florida, OH and Virginia.

But the campaign would matter: The analysis found that a Clinton-Trump contest would've tight races in Florida, Indiana, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, OH and Pennsylvania.

A Clinton-Cruz matchup would produce the same results as Obama-Romney, with each party winning the same states.

The only swing from two thousand twelve in a Clinton-Trump race would be Maine, which would go to Trump.

Kasich benefits because he’s seen favorably by thirty-eight % of registered voters and unfavorably by about one-third, according to the . Trump’s negative rating was sixty % and Cruz’s was fifty-two percent.

Kasich also has appeal for independents. Thirty % viewed him unfavorably, while thirty-seven % liked him. Cruz was seen unfavorably by fifty-six percent, nearly twice as many as viewed him favorably. Trump’s marks among independents were sixty % unfavorable, twenty-seven percent favorable.

released latest week found that Sanders, a VT independent senator who’s mounted a powerful challenge to Clinton, would fare better against Trump or Cruz than Clinton would. The Morning Advise poll didn't measure Sanders’ support.

Kasich has used his electability as a cornerstone of his underdog campaign for the nomination , and he’s stressed his numbers repeatedly as he campaigns in NY this week.

On Tuesday, he told the Women’s National Republican Club in NY City that the GOP can chase one of two paths this year. Without referring to Trump or Cruz by name, he warned that one path “exploits anger, encourages resentment, turns fear into hatred and divides people.” The other, his approach, calls for comity and cooperation with all points of view.

to Trump in the NY primary following Tuesday. Kasich then hopes for powerful showings in April twenty-six primaries in states with more moderate Republican constituencies, including Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, PA and Rhode Island.

But he’s distant behind in conference delegates – his one hundred forty-three trace even the one hundred seventy of Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., who suspended his campaign a mo ago. Kasich has won only his residence state, and he’s counting on a deadlocked conference that'll turn to him on a second and third ballot because it sees his general-election strength.

Morning Advise did have some qualifiers. Nearly one in sixth registered voters stay undecided. The survey measured registered, not likely, voters. About eighty % of registered voters went to the polls in 2012.

And of course, the pollsters warned, “much can modify throughout the spring, summer and fall.”

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