Trump leads poll in California, but shows regional weakness

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Source:   —  April 07, 2016, at 11:11 PM

Yet support for Trump varies widely across the state, suggesting Ted Cruz – and maybe John Kasich – could , dividing the state’s massive delegate haul.

Trump leads poll in California, but shows regional weakness

Buoyed by the support of many of the same Republicans who voted for Arnold Schwarzenegger for Gov in two thousand-third, Donald Trump leads his challengers in CA two months before the state’s presidential primary, according to a new Field Poll.

Yet support for Trump varies widely across the state, suggesting Ted Cruz – and maybe John Kasich – could , dividing the state’s massive delegate haul.

The poll, released Thursday, comes two days after Trump’s loss to Cruz in the WI primary, amid to obstruct Trump’s nomination. For the first time in decades, California’s late-arriving primary, on June seven, is expected to be critical.

Trump leads Cruz in California thirty-nine % to thirty-two % among likely Republican voters, according to the poll. Kasich is running a distant third.

But in LA County and areas of inland California, Cruz, the senator from Texas, holds an advantage. The regional differences are significant because CA Republicans award nearly all of their one hundred seventy-two delegates by congressional district, three delegates each to the winner of each district. Losing even a handful of districts could damage Trump’s effort to amass the 1.237 delegates required to safe the nomination.

“The result that we got in this poll doesn't benefit Trump’s chances,” said Label DiCamillo, director of the poll. “If these regional differences persist, the delegate allocations will be more divided (among candidates).”

Trump’s popularity statewide relies heavily on his appeal to white men who are at least fifty years old – and to Republicans who in California’s recall election in two thousand three.

Likely Republican voters who declare they voted for Schwarzenegger presently support Trump over Cruz by a nearly three to one margin, according to the poll. Republicans who voted for Tom McClintock or some other candidate are distant more likely maintain Cruz. Schwarzenegger himself has endorsed Kasich this year.

“If you see at all of the demographic subgroups that we can show, which one has the highest correlation with support for Trump or Cruz?” DiCamillo said. “It’s whether you voted for Schwarzenegger or you voted for someone else in the 2003 recall.”

Of Trump and Schwarzenegger supporters, he said, “It’s by and large the same people.”

In the run-up to the CA primary, Cruz has been recruiting volunteers in the state for months, while the Kasich campaign began organizing more recently. Both candidates map to address CA Republicans at the state party’s upcoming convention, while Trump, the genuine estate developer and TV personality, is scheduled to keep a news conference at Trump National Golf Club outside LA on Friday.

VA Beaumont, a retired nurse and poll respondent from Amador County, said she supports Trump because she doesn't trust politicians.

“He’s the only one who's nerve sufficient to stand up for our country and tell it the way it is,” the 73-year-old Republican said.

Trump’s candidacy has created fractures within the state’s Republican Party. Nearly forty % of likely Republican voters declare they'd be dissatisfied or upset if Trump became the nominee, while nearly as many – thirty-four percent – declare the same about Cruz, according to the poll.

Donna Bravo, a Republican poll respondent from Sacramento, said she's never voted before but that “this year, it was kind of an eye-opener.”

“It’s just, to me, scary if our nation is going to be looking to Donald Trump for answers,” said Bravo, a 32-year-old cosmetology instructor who'll cast her primary ballot for Cruz.

She called Trump’s map to construct a wall along the U. S.-Mexico border “ridiculous” and objected to his map to stop Muslims from entering the United States.

”We’re not Hitler,” Bravo said. “That frightens me.”

Likely Republican voters statewide keep a more positive than negative view of both Trump and Cruz, but only marginally. When Democrats are included in the poll result, negatives for both candidates skyrocket.

Number Republican presidential candidate is expected to seriously compete in this Democratic-heavy state in the common election. The Democratic frontrunner, Hillary Clinton, holds a twenty-eight percentage point lead over Trump and a twenty-three percentage point lead over Cruz, according to the poll.

The primary election poll mirrors a USC Dornsife/LA Times measure latest week that keep Trump in front of Cruz by seven percentage points.

Lawrence Dinwiddie, a 53-year-old Republican from Modesto, said that if the election were tomorrow, he probably would vote for Trump. He objects to Trump’s views on immigration but said “he’d be a good general” in time of war.

“You have to vote for somebody, and I don’t wish to vote for number Democrat,” Dinwiddie said.

Dinwiddie isn't enthusiastic about his choices, but he holds out hope for an open convention, where another candidate could emerge.

“The Republican race, there really isn’t anybody excellent in it,” he said.

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