The Lid: Running the Numbers on the two thousand sixteen GOP Battle

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Source:   —  April 07, 2016, at 1:58 AM

If they're love us, a significant percentage of the pundits speculating about desperately necessary delegate calculations got to their lot in life in spite of spending their all adolescence conspicuously avoiding having to memorise math.

Welcome to The Lid, your afternoon dose of the two thousand sixteen ethos… Brace yourselves, America. If they're love us, a significant percentage of the pundits speculating about desperately necessary delegate calculations got to their lot in life in spite of spending their all adolescence conspicuously avoiding having to learn math.

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After a late night in Wisconsin, we're pulling out our calculators and spreadsheets once more to figure out precisely what kind of margins Donald Trump will necessity to hit that magic no of one.237 to clinch the GOP nomination *before* Cleveland. There'south a lot of breathless speculation -- and recollect that the following contest in question doesn't happen for two weeks and the whole shebang isn't over until June -- so let'south lay out what we do and don't know. 1) Trump'south loss in Wisconsin, where he picked up just six delegates, makes it less likely that he'll obtain to the 1.237 threshold. It'south presently going to be a *very* tough path for him, but it'south still a tad too early yet to declare with absolute certainty that the door is totally closed on the possibility. two) Trump will have to carry out exceptionally well in the delegate-rich states of NY and California, as well as picking up large chunks of support in states like NJ (which is winner-take-all) and WV and CT to have a prayer of getting near to the threshold. And the pressure will be on for a powerful performance in Indiana, a state where we don't yet have any dependable polling. three) The margins will matter. Recollect that Trump will have the opportunity to go fishing in the pool of more than one hundred unbound delegates during the weeks between the final contests on June seven and the convention. If he'south only twenty, thirty or forty some votes short, he could successfully lock down sufficient commitments to arrive into Cleveland confident of a first ballot win. If we wake up on June eight and Trump is eighty or one hundred delegates short, that'south when the second ballot drama will burst up into the foreground.

"To be honest, what I spoke at residence was Spanglish."

Bernie Sanders campaigns in Philadelphia.

John Kasich is campaigning in Brooklyn with Montel Williams.

Ted Cruz is in Scotia, New York.

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