NY Stealing WI's Thunder in the Democratic Primary

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Source:   —  April 01, 2016, at 3:58 AM

Even though the NY primary isn't until April nineteen, Clinton campaigned close her residence in Westchester County, while Sanders is holding what'south expected to be a massive rally in the Bronx.

NY Stealing WI's Thunder in the Democratic Primary

The WI Democratic primary is just five days away, but you wouldn't know it from looking at Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders' schedule on Thursday.

Even though the NY primary isn't until April nineteen, Clinton campaigned close her residence in Westchester County, while Sanders is holding what'south expected to be a massive rally in the Bronx.

With WI tilting in Sanders' favor and unlikely to modify the trajectory of the race either way, NY is the following major inflection point in the primary, and it'south stealing Wisconsin'south spotlight. Both candidates have already starting looking past the Midwest state, greedily eyeing the Empire State's two hundred forty-seven delegates - the second largest haul of the all calendar. Clinton is active shoring up fortifications on her residence turf, and Sanders is preparing for an all-out onslaught.

That'south not to declare Clinton is abandoning WI entirely, though, nor is Sanders taking it for granted.

Yesterday, Clinton added a ride to the state to this weekend. Sanders will return for a three-day swing starting Friday. Both candidates will show up at the state Democratic Party'south Founders Day Dinner in Milwaukee on Saturday.

And Clinton'south campaign has significantly stepped up its TV ad spending since the beginning of the week, surpassing $one million, an ad-buying source confirmed to MSNBC. Sanders has spent even more, just shy of $2 million.

Tad Devine, Sanders' top strategist, told MSNBC that Clinton'south campaign is trying to lower the bar for themselves in the state with a New York-heavy travel schedule. "I don't think they put $one million on TV in WI because they've given up in Wisconsin," Devine said. "They're doing a grand work of suppressing expectations."

WI Democrats are expecting an unusually large turnout Tuesday and declare the party faithful aren't concerned about being overshadowed. They're just excited to have any major role in the presidential primary, as that'south not always the case.

Still, WI was an afterthought on back-to-back conference calls with reporters both candidates held this week. Clinton'south chief strategist Joel Benenson nearly made it through the all call without addressing the contest. "It'south a state that's likely to not create a enormous shift in the delegate math," he said.

A new poll out Wednesday from Marquette Law School showed Sanders leading Clinton in Wisconsin forty-nine % to forty-five percent, with six % undecided. Sanders won neighboring MN and Michigan, which have similar demographic profiles, though WI is even more white.

Both campaigns are expecting a near race, and since Democrats allot delegates proportionally, a narrow edge means the winner and the loser will both walk far with a similar no of delegates.

New York'south sheer size makes the edge even more important.

In WI (eighty-six delegates), the winner would net about 1 pledged delegate for every 1 percentage point he or she puts between themselves and the loser. In NY (two hundred forty-seven delegates), a single percentage point is worth about 2.5 delegates. So even a tight 52-48 point race could net the winner ten more delegates in New York, while a 60-40 race would net near to fifty delegates.

And beyond the delegate math, NY is vital to both candidates, who both have personal connections to the state.

For Sanders, the stakes are existential. The underdog is perpetually one huge loss far from being blown off his already treacherous course, so he can't afford to be blown out.

NY is Clinton'south home. It'south the state that twice elected her to the Senate, and it'south the space where she chose to headquarter and launch her campaign latest year. A loss - or even a narrow win - would be embarrassing, particularly after Sanders won his residence state of VT by more than seventy points.

"New Yorkers took a chance on me, and I'll never forget that," Clinton said at the historic Apollo Theater in Harlem on Wednesday. "You have always had my back, and I've always tried to have yours."

A new Quinnipiac Univ poll of the state found Clinton twelve points ahead of Sanders. Devine said Sanders can create up the ground, pointing to the fact that slightly more New Yorkers have a negative view of Clinton than a positive one.

"When I'm describing a feeble front-runner, I'm discussing somebody who's a net unfavorable in her residence state," he said.

Sanders brass sent Robert Becker, their former IA organizer who helped Sanders win an upset triumph in Michigan, to lead the NY effort. Clinton brought back Resi Cooper, a veteran of her Senate campaigns in the state. Both campaigns keep their former NH communications directors in charge of media efforts in the Empire State.

Both campaigns promise aggressive schedules, with Clinton aides saying she'll campaign as if she were running for Senate all over again. Sanders staffers have said he'll running as if he'south running for governor.

For Clinton, it'south an opportunity to highlight her work in the Senate, which her camp believes underscores her pragmatic skill to obtain things done. "Now, some folks may have the luxury to keep out for the perfect, but a lot of Americans are hurting right now, and they can't wait for that. They necessity the good, and they necessity it now," she said in Harlem.

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