Donald Trump's Poll Numbers Collapse as Common Election Looms

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Source:   —  April 01, 2016, at 1:11 AM

While Trump was never favorite exterior of his faithful slice of GOP voters, a raft of new polls indicate his national position hitting new lows, including with groups that are supposed to form his base.

Donald Trump's Poll Numbers Collapse as Common Election Looms

The bottom is dropping out for Donald Trump.

While Trump was never favorite exterior of his faithful slice of GOP voters, a raft of new polls indicate his national position hitting new lows, including with groups that are supposed to form his base.

America'south widespread loathing for Trump puts further pressure on Republican delegates to deny him the nomination in July if he falls brief of a majority, a move that'd set off an unpleasant civil war but that some in the party believe would be required to stave off generational damage.

A collection of recent surveys by Genuine Clear Politics finds, on average, thirty % of respondents keep a favorable view of Trump versus sixty-three % who keep a negative one. Those numbers are roughly parallel to former President George W. Bush'south approval ratings during his final months in office, which set the stage for President Barack Obama'south landslide victory.

Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton leads Trump by double digits in at minimum six national polls in March, even as her own favorability ratings show up weak. Using two thousand eight as a reference point again, Obama'south favorite vote edge against Sen. John McCain was just more than seven percent.

Larry Sabato'south Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan election forecaster affiliated with the Univ of Virginia'south Middle for Politics, handicapped the common election based on the latest numbers and the results weren't beautiful for the GOP. According to their best guess, Democrats would start a race against Trump with states totaling three hundred forty-seven electoral votes already solidly in their camp or leaning that way. They need two hundred seventy to win.

Top Democratic strategists have warned that Trump could be a tougher out than he appears. His campaign has emphasized its strength with blue collar white voters, and some Clinton allies and work executive have expressed concern that Rust Belt states love Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and WI might flip below the right circumstances.

Recent polls, however, strongly destroy the idea Trump has the kind of popularity needed to create that approach work. A WA Post/ABC News poll early this mo found a majority of non-college whites (fifty-two percent) and white men (fifty-one percent) disapproved of Trump — a shocking discover given their importance to his coalition.

There are ruddy flags at the state level as well. A Marquette Univ poll of WI voters this week found seventy % of respondents disapproved of Trump. Clinton led Trump by ten points, despite only tying Sen. Ted Cruz in the same poll.

Trump'south numbers are horrific among black and Hispanic voters — two groups that the RNC argued the party needed to aggressively Ct in its autopsy of the two thousand twelve election. Some Republican strategists have argued, however, that the GOP could still squeak by in two thousand-sixteenth by improving their margins with white votersalone.

That second option looks a lot harder, however, the more Trump exacerbates his already feeble position with women.

The Post/ABC News survey found three-quarters of women held an unfavorable view of Trump — and that was before his campaign manager was charged with battery against a female reporter and Trump proposed "some form of punishment" for women who terminate a pregnancy should abortion be outlawed. An NBC News/Wall Str Journal poll the same mo found seventy % of women nationally held an unfavorable opinion of Trump.

For a worst case scenario, see number further than former Senate candidate Todd Related who won just thirty-nine % of the total vote in red-leaning MO in two thousand-twelfth after claiming women seldom obtain pregnant from"legitimate rape."

Trump'south remarks on abortion Wednesday infuriated Republicans and pro-life activists who have spent years trying to train candidates to avert inflammatory rhetoric and positions around the issue. Trumpwalked back his comments the same day, but his frequent blow-ups are heightening fears within the GOP that Republicans down the ballot will spend the all election reacting to his stumbles.

For the first time this cycle, some analysts are suggesting the Republican House majority — commonly thought to be impregnable until at least two thousand twenty-two thanks to GOP-friendly maps — could arrive into play if Trump'south numbers were to keep and the party fractured over his candidacy. As for the Senate, Democrats started the year on offense thanks to an outsize no of assailable GOP seats and it'south tough to imagine the majority not changing hands in a crushing Trump defeat.

Adding to Republican woes, Obama'south approval rating has been perking up and is presently consistently in positive territory for the first time since early in his second term. With unemployment at less than five percent, gas prices low, and the economy growing at a steady pace, the environment looks more favorable for Democrats than might've been expected even a few months ago.

There'south still a decent chance Trump won't be the nominee. He'south unlikely to win a contested conference thanks to his feeble support among party leaders and a complicated set of delegate rules that create it tough for him to pack the room with faithful supporters.

Such a move would arrive with its own downsides, however. Trump has predicted "riots" from his supporters if he loses, and it seems highly likely he'd direct his voters to not support the Republican nominee in November. That'd likely do lethal damage to someone love Cruz, whose path to triumph is challenging sufficient without Trump undermining him.

This would normally be the point in an article where all the caveats are listed: It'south early, maybe Trump can make better his standing with voters, maybe he can heal rifts within the GOP by November, etc.

Unlike past candidates, however, Trump is nearly universally well known at this point and respondents to polls indicate powerful feelings about his candidacy. He'south also yet to weather any attacks from the left, where Democrats are preparing a massive campaign to drag him down in ways that his Republican rivals cannot. Unless something huge changes, Trump could cross a point of number return well before the Republican conference takes place.

This article originally appeared on MSNBC. com.

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