Fox News Poll: Trump, Clinton regulation Empire State

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Source:   —  April 10, 2016, at 5:24 PM

Trump’s advantage is widespread in the Republican contest. A new Fox News poll finds he leads among men, women, every age group, every income group, and among those with a college degree and those without.

Fox News Poll: Trump, Clinton regulation Empire State

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have double-digit leads in the race for their party’s nominations in New York.

Trump’s advantage is widespread in the Republican contest. A new Fox News poll finds he leads among men, women, every age group, every income group, and among those with a college degree and those without.

Clinton’s the top choice among Democrats, as Bernie Sanders is only able to get the lead among younger voters and men.

First, the Republicans: Trump dominates with fifty-four % support among likely GOP primary voters. John Kasich garners twenty-two % and Ted Cruz is third with fifteen percent.

CLICK TO READ THE POLL RESULTS

The poll, released Sunday, was conducted Monday through Thursday evenings. Cruz had a convincing thirteen-point win over Trump in the WI Republican primary Tuesday.

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But the Empire State is a totally different world -- particularly for Cruz who cracked wise about “New York values” in January.

“Very” conservative voters loved Cruz in the Pester State and gave him a primary season high of sixty-five % support. In the Empire State, sixty-one % of them prefer Trump. Just nineteen % of very conservatives go for Cruz.

There is a gender gap in Trump’s support -- although it only affects the size of his lead. He’s the favorite among fifty-nine % of men vs. forty-nine % of women.

Republican voters without a college degree are 13 points more likely than college grads to pick Trump.

Women are the key to Kasich’s second-place showing, as they're nearly twice as likely to back him as Cruz (twenty-six-14 percent). The two get roughly the same level of support among men.

"It'south not just the statewide results that proposal horrible news for Cruz," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll along with Democratic pollster Chris Anderson. "Even exterior of NY City and its suburbs, he'south running way behind Trump and even a tad behind Kasich. That means Trump could sweep nearly all of the state's delegates."

There’s some room for movement before New York’s primary April nineteen, as nine % of likely GOP primary voters are still undecided or declare they map to back a candidate other than one of the top three.

In addition, about one quarter declare they might modify their minds (twenty-three percent).

Among Trump supporters, eighty-three % perceive certain they'll vote for him, while sixty-three % of Kasich backers declare the same. (There are too few Cruz supporters to break out.)

Kasich supporters are more likely to choose Cruz (forty-four percent) as their second choice candidate than Trump (twenty-six percent). And one quarter declare “none of the above” (twenty-five percent).

The OH Gov is the second choice among Trump’s backers (forty percent) rather than Cruz (26 percent), while twenty-eight % refuse to title a second choice.

In the race for the Democratic nomination, Sanders is hoping to turn the momentum from his double-digit WI win into a residence state triumph in New York.

The trouble for Sanders is, WI is the kind of state he wins -- mostly white and independents could partake in the open primary. NY is a more diverse state, and has a closed primary -- and that’s to Clinton’s advantage. Plus, it’s been her residence state more recently than Sanders.

The poll shows Clinton tops Sanders by 53-37 % among NY likely Democratic primary voters. Another nine % are uncommitted.

Clinton’s clearly the choose among women (61-thirty percent) and non-whites (56-37 percent).

Men give the edge to Sanders by just 47-43 percent.

“Sanders has a lot of work to do if he’s going to create this race a near one,” says Anderson. “He’s currently losing among every demographic grouping with the exception of men and voters below age forty-five. Many more middle-age New Yorkers are going to have to perceive the Bern for Sanders to have a chance of catching Clinton.”

Youthful voters are Sanders’ biggest backers. He’s up by eleven points among those under forty-five (52-41 percent) -- and by thirty points among the under thirty-five crowd (63-33 percent).

The former NY senator holds a 27-point advantage among voters forty-five and over (58-31 percent).

Among those living in a union household, Clinton’s up by 49-40 percent.

She also leads among Jewish voters (59-35 percent) as well as Catholics (53-34 percent).

Regionally, Clinton dominates Sanders in NY City (+nineteen) and is even running slightly ahead beyond the city and its suburbs.

Both Clinton (eighty-five percent) and Sanders supporters (seventy-nine percent) have a high degree of vote certainty.

Still, one in five Sanders backers says they could modify their mind (twenty percent).

Potential two thousand sixteen Matchups

In hypothetical matchups, both Sanders and Clinton trounce Trump among NY likely primary voters.

Trump trails Sanders by nineteen points (54-35 percent) and Clinton by sixteen (53-37 percent).

If it ends up being a Clinton-Trump ballot in the fall, over half of those backing Kasich declare they'd “seriously consider” voting for a third party candidate (forty-five percent) or not vote (nine percent).

Among those backing Sanders, just over one third says they'd consider a third-party candidate (30 percent) or not vote (six percent).

The Fox News Poll is conducted below the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The telephone poll (landline and cellphone) was conducted April four-7, two thousand sixteen, with live interviewers among a random sample of 1.403 NY voters selected from a statewide voter file (plus or minus 2.5 percentage points). Results for the eight hundred one likely Democratic primary voters have a edge of sampling mistake of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points and for the six hundred two likely Republican primary voters it's plus or minus 4 points.

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